(AsiaGameHub) – Recent research indicates that the overwhelming majority of Polymarket users are unprofitable. Blockchain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov reports that 84.1% of traders are currently operating at a loss.
The study examined approximately 2.5 million wallet addresses by leveraging Polygon blockchain data through Dune Analytics. It discovered that merely 2% of users have ever generated more than $1,000 on the platform, and only 0.033%—about 840 wallets—have earned in excess of $100,000.
The research challenges the idea that consumers can secure a steady income via prediction markets. The likelihood of any user consistently making $5,000 per month is less than 1%. Of the top earners—6,600 users with an average monthly profit of $5,000 or higher—only 2.6% stayed active for over a year.
Per the report, many users execute trades right before exiting the platform, which leads to a decline in their average profitability over time. A separate 2025 analysis of 124 million trades found that roughly 70% are not profitable.
This research came out as Polymarket keeps expanding, as shown by its recent collaboration with Major League Baseball and its standing among the world’s largest prediction market platforms. Token Terminal data reveals that $9.8 billion in trades were conducted on Polymarket over a 30-day span—making it the second most-traded prediction market after Kalshi.
Polymarket has also rolled out multiple new features, including some with referral programs to draw in users, and Sergeenkov cautioned about possible losses for average retail traders, partly due to insufficient user education.
The broader prediction market industry has seen rapid, explosive growth, with trading volumes rising sharply between 2024 and 2025. This expansion has attracted greater regulatory scrutiny than ever before, particularly in the U.S., where various agencies are exploring how to classify and oversee these markets.
Polymarket has also launched a new in-house stablecoin, Polymarket USD, as part of a larger infrastructure update. Although its crowd-sourced forecasting model is frequently lauded for its accuracy, the data underscores a striking gap between market predictions and the results individual traders achieve.
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